Snowbreak: the exclusive and rate-up banners cost the same, until you are unlucky
A new operative averages 80.6 pulls on the exclusive banner and 80.7 on the rate-up banner beside it. The exclusive banner is guaranteed by pull 100; the rate-up banner can run to 160.
A new Snowbreak operative costs 80.6 pulls on average on the exclusive banner and 80.7 on the rate-up banner, which is practically the same price. The difference is the ceiling. The exclusive banner guarantees the operative by pull 100. The rate-up banner can take 160.
Two banners, one operative
Every one of the 76 exclusive ([SP]) banners on record ran at the same time as a rate-up banner of the same name. The rate-up banner featured the same new unit, operative or weapon, alongside its standard pool. Both take the same Manifestation Echo Covenant, or 160 DigiCash a pull, so every pull is a choice between two very different ladders:
| Exclusive | Rate-up | |
|---|---|---|
| Top-tier rate per pull | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| Rate climbs from pull | 71 (+0.75 points a pull) | 63 (+5 points a pull) |
| Top tier guaranteed at | 100 | 80 |
| Overall top-tier rate | 1.24% | 1.86% |
| Is the top tier the new operative? | always | half the time; a miss makes the next one certain |
| Operative guaranteed by | 100 | 160 |
The exclusive banner's top tier holds exactly one entry, the new operative, so its guarantee is a guarantee on the operative. The rate-up banner reaches its top tier sooner, about every 53.8 pulls on average, but a top-tier hit that is not already guaranteed is the new operative only half the time. The rate-up banner's higher rate and its 50/50 cancel out almost exactly: 12,901 DigiCash against 12,909 on average.
Where they differ: early luck against a hard stop
The chance of having the new operative by a given pull count, from a fresh start:
The two banners get to the same average in opposite ways. At 0.1% a pull, the exclusive banner almost never pays out early. Its median is pull 83, because 93.2% of players ride into the climb that starts at 71 without her. The rate-up banner is the better gamble early. Its median is pull 70, and it is ahead at every count shown up to pull 80. After that its tail takes over: 30.8% of rate-up players still have no operative at pull 100, which is exactly where every exclusive player is done.
The worst case is 16,000 DigiCash on the exclusive banner and 25,600 on the rate-up banner. For the same average, that is a 60-pull difference in how bad it can get.
Which to use
If you have to have the operative and your budget is tight, use the exclusive banner. It costs no more on average, and it cannot run past 100. If you have a comfortable buffer and would like a better shot at an early copy, the rate-up banner gives you that at the same average price. You pay for it with a longer tail, and a lost 50/50 still hands you a standard top-tier operative.
Weapons follow the same pattern. The exclusive weapon averages 63.2 pulls and the rate-up weapon 63.2, with ceilings of 80 and 120.
Every recruitment type's ladder is on the pull rates page, and every banner pair with its dates and featured units is on the banner history page. To see what the operative is worth once she arrives, use the stat calculator.