Mecharashi: how many pulls a featured pilot costs
50.5 pulls on average, 120 at worst. How the SSR ramp works, why the real average is one SSR every 36 pulls, and what the 60%/40% costs you.
A featured SSR pilot on a Mecharashi Rate-Up banner costs 50.5 pulls on average, about 4,440 Solid Arashium. The worst case is 120 pulls (10,560 Solid Arashium), and it is a hard ceiling. Both numbers come from two rules: the SSR ramp, and the guarantee that follows a lost featured roll.
The ramp
Every pull starts at a 1.5% SSR chance. After 38 pulls without an SSR, each further pull adds 0.7%. Pull 60 is a guaranteed SSR. The counter resets whenever an SSR arrives.
The table shows two phases. For the first 38 pulls nothing changes, and only 43.7% of players get an SSR in that stretch. Once the ramp starts, the odds climb quickly. Another 49.1% of players get their SSR during the ramp, which reaches 16.2% per pull on the last pull before the guarantee. Only 7.3% reach the guaranteed pull.
One SSR every 36 pulls, not every 33.3
On average, the ramp gives one SSR every 36 pulls, an effective rate of 2.77%. The Pilot Summon lists its SSR rate as 3.00%, which is a little higher than the ramp as described produces. Taken at face value, 3.00% would mean one SSR every 33.3 pulls. That is 2.7 pulls fewer per SSR than the ramp gives, and the gap is paid again on every SSR you plan for. Use 36 pulls per SSR as your working figure.
The featured roll
When an SSR lands on a Rate-Up banner, it is the featured pilot 60% of the time. If it is not, the next SSR is guaranteed to be the featured pilot. So on average you need 36 pulls for the first SSR. You need a second run only when you lose the 40% roll. Together those give the 50.5 average.
Average: 50.5 pulls. One full pity run: 60 pulls, 5,280 Solid Arashium. Guaranteed: 120 pulls, 10,560 Solid Arashium.
The worst case is two back-to-back runs to hard pity with a lost roll in between. It is rare, but it is the only amount that guarantees the pilot. If you must have a pilot before their banner ends, save 120 pulls. If you can wait for a rerun, plan around the average. Of the 37 pilots who have led a banner, 21 have led more than one. Each pull costs 88 Solid Arashium or one Recruit Voucher, so vouchers count toward the same totals.
Using the numbers
Two habits follow from the ramp. First, know where your counter stands. A counter past 38 is already in the ramp and much closer to an SSR than a fresh one. Second, the first 38 pulls are the least rewarding part of any run, because the chance per pull is lowest there. A small budget spent on a fresh counter will usually buy nothing.
The roster has 43 SSR pilots, and the Banner History lists 70 pilot banners with their featured pilots and dates. Check it to see whether the pilot you want has returned before, and how long the gap was. Every rarity's odds, including the per-pilot chance inside the SSR pool, are on the Pull Rates page.