Echocalypse: Advanced Draw or a rate-up banner?
The Advanced Draw gives a UR every 32.6 draws on average, guaranteed by draw 50. A rate-up banner's featured Case averages 72.7 draws, but it is the Case you chose.
On the Advanced Draw, a UR Case costs 32.6 draws on average and is guaranteed by draw 50. On a rate-up banner, the featured Case costs 72.7 draws on average, 2.2× as many. The difference is what you get: the Advanced Draw never lets you choose the Case; a rate-up banner is where to chase a specific one.
The two draws side by side
| Advanced Draw | Rate-up banner | |
|---|---|---|
| Target | any UR | the featured Case |
| Overall rate | 3% UR | 2.2% SSR+, 40% of it featured |
| Guarantee | UR by draw 50 | SSR+ within 60; after a miss, the next one is featured |
| Average draws | 32.6 | 72.7 |
| Average Iridimorphite | 4,897 | 10,909 |
| Most it can take | 50 draws, 7,500 | 120 draws, 18,000 |
Both cost 150 Iridimorphite or one S Elementium a draw, so the draw counts above compare directly: the price per draw is the same on either side.
The Advanced Draw
The Advanced Draw starts at 1.5% a draw and the rate rises with every miss, slowly at first and steeply near the end, until draw 50 guarantees a UR. Half of players have one by draw 38, and 19% only get it from the guarantee itself. The ramp is back-loaded: the early draws are close to the base rate, and most of the climb happens in the last stretch before the guarantee. Every draw also has a 6% chance of an SSR+.
A rate-up banner
An SSR+ arrives about every 45.5 draws. The first one is the featured Case 40% of the time; if not, the next one is. That makes 1.6 hits on average, and 72.7 draws.
The 389 rate-up pools on record all use these terms; Memory Drift, featuring Suri, is one of them. The rate-up banners do not state how their rate rises between draws, so only the average is exact here: how many draws half of players need is not something their stated terms pin down.
Which to use
For a specific Case, the rate-up banner
The Advanced Draw is cheaper per UR but cannot target one. If a Case matters, budget 10,909 Iridimorphite on its banner and keep up to 18,000 for a bad run.
For a wider roster, the Advanced Draw
When any UR is welcome, the Advanced Draw needs 2.2× fewer draws on average than a featured Case does, and its worst case is 7,500 Iridimorphite against 18,000. The Pull Planner models it draw by draw for your own budget, and every banner's rates are on the pull rates page.